Do not rely on intuition, omens and other nonsense. A professional player must always evaluate the probability of an outcome. For example, Andrei claims that the hosts will win the match. He doesn’t care what odds to bet on. He will play both 1.45 and 1.70. And you already know how important the value of quotes is.
However, if Pavel tells him that he estimates the chances of the hosts winning at 55%, then it becomes clear that you should not take this bet for 1.4 or even 1.7. The mathematical expectation does not exceed one (0.55 * 1.7 = 0.935), which means that the deal is unprofitable in the future. If the odds were around 2.0, then such a bet would be justified.
This strategy is called Value Betting – betting on underestimated odds based on statistics and analysis. Primitive explanation: a player scores in every third match. It turns out that the coefficient for this event is 1 to 3.3. Putting 10 c.u. for 3 matches, you will receive 33 c.u. This is in theory, since the example takes into account superficial statistics, and not the form of the athlete, his motivation, the level of the opponent, and many other factors.
Keep bid statistics
You must be aware of each placed bet. Recording trades allows you to find strengths and weaknesses. Only accounting for bets will tell you that your baseball bets are unprofitable, a negative handicap loses more often, and odds greater than two pass with the same frequency as 1.55.
These moments are revealed after the analysis of perfect rates. Record the bet in a table or notebook, indicating the date, tournament, match, outcome, odds, bet amount and result.
After a while, you will get bored, but accounting for rates and analyzing them is no less important than finding profitable quotes. If you do not keep statistics, then earning at a distance is problematic, even with good analytical skills. Overcome laziness and fix deals.
Narrow specialization
Focus on one thing. First, select a sport, and then a few tournaments. Do not scatter your strength and energy on exotic disciplines and unknown championships. You need to know more about the upcoming event than the analysts of the office.
The bookmaker is not able to carefully follow every sport and every league. As a rule, the company has competitions that are added to the line in order to expand it, and not to earn money.
When you follow an unpopular championship for a long time, you know more about it than the office. Watch every match, study the news and find insider information. Believe that the Australian Football Championship in the CIS is given little attention, although it is a well-known tournament. What to say then about the championships of African countries? Become an expert of uninteresting championship for others. Due to low competition, knowledge will make it possible to earn.
Manage risks
Bookmakers continue to work because they earn. People do not control risks and do not understand the obvious – you can win many times, but lose only once.
Assess the risk of losing the game bank. In essence, this means that you cannot bet more on a bet than you can bet on it. It’s cool to go for broke on the so-called “reinforced concrete” and earn a lot, but next time you’ll be unlucky and your balance will be reset to zero.
If the probability of passing the bet is high, bet more. And vice versa. Focus not just on the odds, but on the chances of a particular outcome. For example, when the probability is 75% – bet 5% of the bank, and when 45% – then 3% of the bankroll.
Also make the same bets. No need to make one deal a day, and then bet on everything. Choose the optimal number of trades so that you have enough time to analyze each outcome.
Summary
In conclusion, I would like to say that most bettors are in the red at a distance. Many of them lose consciously, because they don’t want to analyze matches for hours, study the news and read analytical articles. They bet mindlessly: some for the chance to hit the jackpot, and others for the adrenaline of watching matches. Some try to win, but not ways to control emotions and, succumbing to excitement, forget about financial strategy and lose money.
Do not chase instant profit – gradually improve, achieve a constant income and gradually increase it.
